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Jan 25, 2011

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USAGOLD News, Commentary and Analysis

NEWSLETTER - News, Commentary and Analysis

The Morning Gold Report by Peter A. Grant
Gold Correction Extends
January 25, a.m.
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold remains under pressure as the emerging global tightening bias continues. The Reserve Bank of India hiked rates 25bp today, citing stubborn inflation as its primary concern. The RBI raised its inflation forecast for the end of March to 7% from 5.5% previously. While the BoJ held rates steady near 0%, amid ongoing concerns about deflation, central bank governor Masaaki Shirakawa expressed some degree of optimism about Japan's prospects for recovery.

Recent optimism here in America was dealt a blow be the latest round of Case-Shiller home price data. The 20-city index fell to 143.9 in Nov, below market expectations, versus 145.3 in Oct. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Home prices in the 20-cities were down about 1.0% m/m and 1.6% from a year ago. With talk of a double-dip in housing escalating, the Fed is going to be hard-pressed to justify any imminent move toward tighter monetary policy. Today's data will also likely raise some doubts about whether QE2 will end on schedule at the end of H1.
Undoubtedly, the state of housing will be high on the Fed's agenda as the FOMC commences their two-day policy meeting today. With four new voting members, the FOMC is believed to have a more hawkish bent, which could result in more dissent about ongoing quantitative easing measures. Up until this morning's Case-Shiller report, I was expecting the FOMC to echo the recent optimism about the economy. However, hinting about higher long-term rates being desirous now, could result in accelerated losses in housing. More tempered optimism is probably warranted, with yet another reiteration of the "exceptionally low, extended period" mantra.
With the President's State of the Union speech tonight, the FOMC policy statement and options expiration tomorrow, as well as the gold market's proximity to the 200-day moving average, the next 36-hours or so should tell us a lot. The recent correction in gold is very reminiscent of the corrections seen in Jan and July of last year. From the Dec 2009 high to the Jan 2010 low, the market was off about 14% and stalled about 2% shy of the 200-day MA. From the Jun 2010 high to the Jul 2010 low, the market corrected about 8.5% and the decline stalled less than 1% above the 200-day MA. Like the most recent decline of 7% (thus far), both the previous correction were sparked by the short-lived perception that Europe had a handle on the sovereign debt crisis. The 200-day MA presently comes in at 1282.50, about 3% below today's low.
In our latest newsletter, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals founder and President Michael J. Kosares, has written an excellent headline article on the resurgence of interest in gold being restored to a central role in the international monetary system. The article is entitled: How gold became politically correct. It is definitely worth a read and I encourage you to sign-up to receive our monthly newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, so as not to miss an issue.
Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.


Evening Market Report
Inflation worries, softer dollar help gold futures close higher

The COMEX February gold futures contract closed up $3.50 Monday at $1344.50, trading between $1340.70 and $1352.40
January 24, p.m. excerpts:
(from Marketwatch) --

Gold futures settled higher, snapping a two-day losing streak as talk of inflation and a lower dollar propped up prices against weakness in other metals. Gold for February delivery added 0.3% to $1,344.50 an ounce on the Comex. Futures had climbed as high as $1,352.40 an ounce earlier in the day, but lost steam as the session progressed, with the modest advance on Monday due to a stronger euro pressuring the dollar and some gold buying at the expense of silver futures...more

(from AP) --

The euro has jumped more than 5% in the past two weeks, after a months-long decline spurred by the European debt crisis, as investors' perception that European officials will soon come up with a more comprehensive solution to the crisis has helped calm tensions. Moreover, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet suggested in an interview published by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday that the central bank could lift interest rates to combat higher inflation despite the debt woes in Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain...
more
(from Reuters) --

The dollar slipped for a fifth straight session against the euro, hitting a two-month low as expectations of higher euro zone interest rates sparked traders to push the single currency above important technical levels. Analysts said bullion still benefited from concern over the stability of the euro zone, which was highlighted by political uncertainty in Ireland, after the country's junior coalition party withdrew from Prime Minister Brian Cowen's government...more

(from Bloomberg) --

Irish political leaders said they'll press to pass a budget before elections as the collapse of Prime Minister Brian Cowen's coalition threw the government into disarray. Passing the budget is a condition of Ireland's €85 billion aid package from the IMF and the European Union. "If the finance bill does not pass or is postponed until after the elections, then there will be a significant amount of stress placed upon both sovereign and bank debt in Europe," noted Mark Grant, managing director at Southwest Securities Inc...more

(from Dow Jones) --

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude TrichetGold also gained Monday in its role as a hedge against rising consumer and producer prices after ECB President Trichet warned that inflation pressures in the euro zone must be watched closely, and urged central bankers everywhere to ensure that higher energy and food prices don't gain a foothold in the global economy. His comments come ahead of Wednesday's conclusion of the two-day U.S. FOMC meeting, when U.S. monetary policy makers are expected to keep interest rates at ultra low levels...more

(from TheStreet) --

The reason the U.S. isn't registering higher inflation is that the country excludes food and energy prices, which are volatile and have seen a meteoric rise in 2010. According to reports, world foods prices rose 25% in 2010, while corn alone rallied 79%. There has also been chatter that the rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield points to long-term inflation worries. If investors think the U.S. dollar will be worth less in the future, they are less apt to lend money to the country and interest rates must rise to entice them...
more





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