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P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Comex Gold Ends Lower on Firmer U.S. Dollar Index, Weak Near-Term Technical Posture 02 February 2010, 01:59 p.m. By Jim Wyckoff Of Kitco News http://www.kitco.com/

(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures prices closed moderately lower Wednesday, amid a firmer U.S. dollar index and on the bearish near-term technical tilt of the market. Comex April gold last traded down $8.60 at $1,331.70 an ounce. Spot gold last traded down $10.80 at $1,331.50.

The U.S. dollar index rose modestly Wednesday on some short covering, which was a slightly bearish factor for the precious metals. However, the dollar index bears still have overall near-term technical advantage and did hit a fresh three-month low overnight. Gold bulls have been disappointed recently that gold prices have not seen more upside support from the weaker dollar index. 

Egypt's continuing civil unrest and the uncertainty regarding the situation will keep the sellers in gold at least somewhat restrained for the near term. There were clashes between protesters on the streets in Cairo Wednesday. In fluid situations like the one in Egypt at present, no one can predict if the worst is over, or is yet to come, regarding demonstrations and violence. Precious metals traders are still keeping a close eye on the situation in Egypt.

Crude oil prices have backed down from it's recent highs and were trading near steady levels Wednesday. The crude market had reached strong overhead resistance at the January high of $93.46, basis the March Nymex futures contract. If crude oil prices do back off further, that would be a bearish underlying factor for the gold market.

Traders are awaiting Friday's key U.S. jobs report. That report is expected to show non-farm payrolls grew by around 135,000 in January. Stronger U.S. jobs growth in Friday's report would likely support the U.S. dollar index and be a negative for the precious metals markets.

The London P.M. gold fix was $1,337.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,331.50.

Technically, April Comex gold futures prices closed nearer the session low Wednesday. Gold prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, but trading action has become choppy just recently. Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $1,354.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $1,309.10. First resistance is seen at $1,340.00 and then at today's high of $1,345.60. Support is seen at today's low of $1,327.30 and then at this week's low of $1,323.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March silver futures closed down 24.9 cents at $28.265 an ounce Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a fresh two-week high early on. A firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices did help to pressure silver Wednesday. The silver bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $26.30. Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $29.49 an ounce. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $28.72 and then at $29.00. Next support is seen at $28.00 and then at this week's low of $27.52. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 15 points at 454.85 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and poked to another fresh contract and all-time record high. The bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 475.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 440.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's record high of 456.20 cents and then at 458.00 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday's low of 451.60 cents and then at 450.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

 

By Jim Wyckoff of Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

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Gold Rate Today in Egypt Current Gold Rate in Egypt in Egyptian Pounds (EGP), Last updated on 2011-02-02 08:00 PM (Cairo local time)

Detailed Report about gold rate in Egypt as of Wednesday 2nd, 2011. The following report provides you with the latest gold rate in Egypt in Egyptian Pounds per Ounce, 24k Gram, 21k Gram, 18k Gram, 14K Gram of gold.

The following gold rate in Egypt report is based on the NYSPOT gold rates market. And is being automatically updated every 60 minutes

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Gold Price Holds Flat, "No Link" to Middle East Unrest as Beijing Advised to "Buy Gold on Dips" - 2^nd February 2011

The Gold Price in Dollars held flat for the week so far on Wednesday morning in London, trading at $1337 per ounce as silver ticked lower with the broad commodity markets but copper prices broke fresh all-time highs.

Clashes broke out in Cairo as protesters demanded President Mubarak leaves office now, not in Sept. as he's offered.

The Gold Bullion market's lackluster response during Egypt's unrest suggests "there is no direct link between geopolitical risk in the Middle East and the gold price," reckons one dealer in a note.

With China's equity markets closed for the Lunar New Year holidays, Japanese and other Asian equities rose sharply, but European shares held flat overall after new data showed Factory Gate prices in the Eurozone rising at a two-year record of 5.3% in Dec.

UK construction activity also rose ahead of expectations, as did new US jobs as measured by the private-sector ADP Payrolls report.

"The downside target of the head and shoulders top [in the Gold Price] remains at $1265," says Axel Rudolph in his latest technical analysis research for Commerzbank in Luxembourg, "which is right at the June 2010 high.

"Hence the whole region between the 2008-2011 uptrend line at $1296.37 and the $1227.20 November 2009 high could be revisited over the coming weeks before the Gold Price stabilizes."

Following January's 6% drop in the Gold Price, Chinese central-bank advisor Xia Bin yesterday repeated his call for the People's Bank to maintain its "buy-at-a-low" strategy and grow its gold reserves, according to the privately-owned free English daily paper, the Hong Kong Standard.

"Increasing gold reserves can increase the amount of solvency, which is critical for the internationalization of the Yuan," Xia said, adding that "the United States did not sell a single gram of gold, despite financial hardship in 2008."

A 6% drop in Gold Prices in early November saw an un-named official talk up the prospect of central-bank buying in a Chinese stock-market journal.

Over the last 30 months, private Chinese households have bought as much physical gold as the People's Bank officially reports all told.

"We must resolutely prevent [consumer] prices from rising too fast...and unswervingly do a good job of controlling the property market," Chinese premier Wen Jiabao said Wednesday morning, visiting a former revolutionary army base in the central province of Anhui ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Shanghai recently imposed new "wealth taxes" on second-home owners, and banking reserve ratios have been raised 7 times in the last 12 months.

Slipping to 4.6% on official data in Dec., consumer-price inflation in the world's second-largest economy remained more than twice the rate of interest now paid on Chinese households' massive bank savings.

"The single most important variable for gold is what the monetary authorities do," said Dr Martin Murenbeeld, economist at South Africa's Dundee Wealth Economics, on MineWeb's weekly radio show  last night.

"What would put a damper on gold is if the authorities got ahead of inflation...if China jacked its interest rates up to 8% or 9%, and if India jacked its interest rates up by 10% or 12%."

Such a move is unlikely, however, says Murenbeeld, because the world's two most populous nations "are very concerned" that economic growth continues to provide enough new employment.

"During the [2009] recession, even China and India expanded their budget deficits very dramatically."

Ireland's government debt was downgraded on Wednesday for the second time in two months by the Standard & Poor's rating agency, which cited the rising risk in Irish bankin debt – caused in turn by "the uncertainties surrounding the size of Ireland's additional capital needs for its largely state-owned financial sector."

On the currency markets today, the Euro slipped half a cent to the Dollar but held above $1.38, capping the Gold Price for German and French investors at €31,150 per kilo.

The British Pound jumped, however, rising above $1.62 and coming close to the 2010 highs set in Nov.

That squashed the Gold Price in Sterling back down to last night's four-month lows at £823 per ounce.

Buying Gold or physical Silver Bullion today...?

Adrian Ash, 02 Feb '11

Adrian Ash runs the research desk at BullionVault, the world's No.1 gold ownership and trading service. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and is now a regular contributor to many leading analysis sites including Forbes. Adrian's views on the gold market have been sought by the Financial Times and Economist Der Stern and FT Deutschland; Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore, and many other respected finance publications. magazine in London; CNBC, Bloomberg and TheStreet.com in New York; Germany's

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The Daily Gold Market Report View more key economic charts for gold investors *NEW* Newsletter . . . USAGOLD News, Commentary and Analysis The Morning Gold Report by Peter A. Grant Gold Correction Extends January 25, a.m. (from USAGOLD.com) -- Gold remains under pressure as the emerging global tightening bias continues. The Reserve Bank of India hiked rates 25bp today, citing stubborn inflation as its primary concern. The RBI raised its inflation forecast for the end of March to 7% from 5.5% previously. While the BoJ held rates steady near 0%, amid ongoing concerns about deflation, central bank governor Masaaki Shirakawa expressed some degree of optimism about Japan's prospects for recovery. Recent optimism here in America was dealt a blow be the latest round of Case-Shiller home price data. The 20-city index fell to 143.9 in Nov, below market expectations, versus 145.3 in Oct. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Home prices in the 20-cities were down about 1.0% m/m and 1.6% from a year ago. With talk of a double-dip in housing escalating, the Fed is going to be hard-pressed to justify any imminent move toward tighter monetary policy. Today's data will also likely raise some doubts about whether QE2 will end on schedule at the end of H1. Undoubtedly, the state of housing will be high on the Fed's agenda as the FOMC commences their two-day policy meeting today. With four new voting members, the FOMC is believed to have a more hawkish bent, which could result in more dissent about ongoing quantitative easing measures. Up until this morning's Case-Shiller report, I was expecting the FOMC to echo the recent optimism about the economy. However, hinting about higher long-term rates being desirous now, could result in accelerated losses in housing. More tempered optimism is probably warranted, with yet another reiteration of the "exceptionally low, extended period" mantra. With the President's State of the Union speech tonight, the FOMC policy statement and options expiration tomorrow, as well as the gold market's proximity to the 200-day moving average, the next 36-hours or so should tell us a lot. The recent correction in gold is very reminiscent of the corrections seen in Jan and July of last year. From the Dec 2009 high to the Jan 2010 low, the market was off about 14% and stalled about 2% shy of the 200-day MA. From the Jun 2010 high to the Jul 2010 low, the market corrected about 8.5% and the decline stalled less than 1% above the 200-day MA. Like the most recent decline of 7% (thus far), both the previous correction were sparked by the short-lived perception that Europe had a handle on the sovereign debt crisis. The 200-day MA presently comes in at 1282.50, about 3% below today's low. In our latest newsletter, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals founder and President Michael J. Kosares, has written an excellent headline article on the resurgence of interest in gold being restored to a central role in the international monetary system. The article is entitled: How gold became politically correct. It is definitely worth a read and I encourage you to sign-up to receive our monthly newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, so as not to miss an issue. Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here. Evening Market Report Inflation worries, softer dollar help gold futures close higher The COMEX February gold futures contract closed up $3.50 Monday at $1344.50, trading between $1340.70 and $1352.40 January 24, p.m. excerpts: (from Marketwatch) -- Gold futures settled higher, snapping a two-day losing streak as talk of inflation and a lower dollar propped up prices against weakness in other metals. Gold for February delivery added 0.3% to $1,344.50 an ounce on the Comex. Futures had climbed as high as $1,352.40 an ounce earlier in the day, but lost steam as the session progressed, with the modest advance on Monday due to a stronger euro pressuring the dollar and some gold buying at the expense of silver futures...more (from AP) -- The euro has jumped more than 5% in the past two weeks, after a months-long decline spurred by the European debt crisis, as investors' perception that European officials will soon come up with a more comprehensive solution to the crisis has helped calm tensions. Moreover, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet suggested in an interview published by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday that the central bank could lift interest rates to combat higher inflation despite the debt woes in Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain...more (from Reuters) -- The dollar slipped for a fifth straight session against the euro, hitting a two-month low as expectations of higher euro zone interest rates sparked traders to push the single currency above important technical levels. Analysts said bullion still benefited from concern over the stability of the euro zone, which was highlighted by political uncertainty in Ireland, after the country's junior coalition party withdrew from Prime Minister Brian Cowen's government...more (from Bloomberg) -- Irish political leaders said they'll press to pass a budget before elections as the collapse of Prime Minister Brian Cowen's coalition threw the government into disarray. Passing the budget is a condition of Ireland's €85 billion aid package from the IMF and the European Union. "If the finance bill does not pass or is postponed until after the elections, then there will be a significant amount of stress placed upon both sovereign and bank debt in Europe," noted Mark Grant, managing director at Southwest Securities Inc...more (from Dow Jones) -- Gold also gained Monday in its role as a hedge against rising consumer and producer prices after ECB President Trichet warned that inflation pressures in the euro zone must be watched closely, and urged central bankers everywhere to ensure that higher energy and food prices don't gain a foothold in the global economy. His comments come ahead of Wednesday's conclusion of the two-day U.S. FOMC meeting, when U.S. monetary policy makers are expected to keep interest rates at ultra low levels...more (from TheStreet) -- The reason the U.S. isn't registering higher inflation is that the country excludes food and energy prices, which are volatile and have seen a meteoric rise in 2010. According to reports, world foods prices rose 25% in 2010, while corn alone rallied 79%. There has also been chatter that the rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield points to long-term inflation worries. If investors think the U.S. dollar will be worth less in the future, they are less apt to lend money to the country and interest rates must rise to entice them...more We educate first-time investors. Put our 37 years of gold market experience to work for you. Call for competitive prices. 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